Following the rapid overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime by Islamist rebels, Syria continues to face significant instability. The interim administration, under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa, is struggling with increasing security issues, such as fierce resistance from Assad’s remaining supporters. Although the fall of Assad’s repressive regime was a pivotal moment in Syria’s 13-year conflict, achieving lasting peace remains a complex challenge.
Months after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in a swift Islamist-led rebel offensive, Syria remains a country in turmoil. The new transitional government, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, is grappling with mounting security challenges, including violent resistance from pockets of Assad loyalists. While the dismantling of Assad’s oppressive state apparatus marked a turning point in Syria’s 13-year civil war, the nation’s path to stability is proving to be far from straightforward.
A persistent menace from supporters of Assad
Following Assad’s exit, his supporters have become a formidable insurgent group. These remains of the old regime, with deep roots in Syria’s military, intelligence, and political frameworks, have used their established networks to mount armed opposition. This rebellion is especially pronounced in the coastal regions of Latakia and Tartous, traditional bastions of the Assad lineage and the heartland of Syria’s Alawite community.
In the months since Assad’s departure, his loyalists have emerged as a significant insurgent force. These remnants of the former regime, many of whom were deeply embedded in Syria’s military, intelligence, and political systems, have leveraged their pre-existing networks to organize armed resistance. This insurgency has been particularly active in the coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartous, long-standing strongholds of the Assad family and home to much of Syria’s Alawite minority.
The Institute for the Study of War, a research entity, has cautioned that Assad loyalists are poised to create some of the most efficient insurgent units in Syria. Their knowledge of military strategies and capacity to use pre-existing networks provide them a strategic edge in orchestrating assaults against the new administration. For interim President Sharaa, this escalating rebellion constitutes the most formidable barrier to solidifying power and maintaining national security.
Increasing strife in Alawite areas
The rebel activities in Latakia and Tartous have intensified the friction between Syria’s Sunni-led interim government and the Alawite minority, a Shia sect that was the core of Assad’s administration. The Alawites, who held influence and advantages during Assad’s rule, have suffered considerable setbacks following its downfall. Despite Sharaa’s promises to honor Syria’s varied religious groups, many now feel excluded and under threat.
Recent accounts of aggression towards Alawite communities have intensified these tensions. Activists have alleged that gunmen linked to the government have killed dozens of male inhabitants in Alawite regions, a claim yet to be independently confirmed but which has nonetheless triggered widespread anger. These events threaten to push more Alawites towards insurgent factions, complicating the government’s attempts to stabilize the area even further.
The scenario in Syria’s southern region continues to be unstable. Despite an agreement struck with Druze forces earlier this week to reduce hostilities, the government still encounters opposition from multiple factions nationwide. Given that various areas are governed by rival groups supported by external powers, the interim government’s influence is both restricted and divided.
The situation in Syria’s south also remains precarious. While a deal was reached with Druze forces earlier this week to ease tensions, the government continues to face resistance from various factions across the country. With different regions controlled by competing groups backed by foreign powers, the interim administration’s authority is limited and fragmented.
The economic and diplomatic challenges ahead
Beyond the immediate security threats, Syria’s transitional government is contending with a dire economic situation. Years of war have left nine out of ten Syrians living in poverty, and the country remains under crippling international sanctions imposed during Assad’s rule. Sharaa’s administration has made lifting these sanctions a priority, viewing it as essential to rebuilding the economy and gaining legitimacy on the global stage.
A Nation Fragmented
A country divided
For Sharaa, the challenge of bringing the nation together involves winning the people’s trust as much as it does defeating the insurgent menace. His administration has urged ex-members of Assad’s security apparatus to lay down their arms and embrace reconciliation, yet advancement has been gradual. “We are monitoring everyone, but we aim to avoid giving the impression of a witch hunt,” stated a senior official in the interim government. This careful strategy illustrates the fragile equilibrium the new leadership must maintain as it seeks to re-establish order without isolating important parts of the populace.
The path forward
The road ahead
Simultaneously, Syria’s leadership encounters increasing global scrutiny as they work to remove sanctions and gain the support necessary to reconstruct the nation. For the interim government, success will hinge on its capability to tackle the underlying causes of unrest, promote inclusivity, and show a sincere commitment to moving away from the authoritarian practices of the past.
At the same time, Syria’s leaders face mounting international scrutiny as they seek to lift sanctions and secure the support needed to rebuild the country. For the transitional government, success will depend on its ability to address the root causes of unrest, foster inclusivity, and demonstrate a genuine commitment to breaking from the authoritarian practices of the past.
As clashes continue and tensions rise, Syria’s future hangs in the balance. The coming months will be critical for Sharaa’s government as it works to consolidate power, restore security, and lay the foundation for a more stable and prosperous nation.
